It's almost that time of year again. The cold is closing in, the lights are coming on earlier, the leaves are turning and everywhere there are intimations of jingling. Even as early as November you can hear it: the jingle of bells, the jingle of cash registers, and the real or metaphoric jingle of coins in pockets as parents gear up for their annual holiday toy-shopping spree. What will they be buying, and what do their purchases portend?

According to industry analysts, those unreflective trackers of trends, the biggest phenomenon in the lucrative "toy category" just now is the technology invasion. Electronic gizmos are supposedly where the money is. The president of one large American toy manufacturer said recently that in the past three years the use of electronics in toys has jumped from less than 10 percent to more than 60 percent. If true, this is a sobering figure. The higher the pile of electronic options -- Sony PlayStations, robotic pets, kid-size digital cameras, video and computer games and so on -- the longer the shadow it casts over traditional toys like blocks, balls and Barbie dolls.

Some deny that the trend is so marked. A September industry survey predicted that the world's top-selling toy for the 2000 holiday season will be the scooter -- a space-age, neon-wheeled, titanium version, admittedly, but still basically a people-powered board on wheels. Last year it was Pokemon, in mostly nonelectronic manifestations, that took the top spot. But others say that the pause or dip in the relentless upward progress of techno-toys merely reflects the current global shortage of electronic chips. Sony, for instance, could deliver only half its planned shipment of PlayStation2s overseas last month. The perception is that traditional toys have thereby won an unexpected reprieve this season.