LONDON -- Two wars should be ending this month, for the Tamil separatists have all but won in Sri Lanka, and Ethiopia has already won in the Horn of Africa. Neither result is wonderful, but -- at least in the past -- outcomes as decisive as these used to end the fighting and let ordinary people get on with their lives. Not any more.

The defeat suffered by the Sri Lankan Army has been stunning. For 17 years it has fought the guerrillas of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, initially a ragtag band of fanatics seeking independence for the Tamil-speaking Hindu minority who live in the north of the island. Five years ago, it even drove the LTTE out of Jaffna, the northern city that is the de facto Tamil capital. But now it is on the brink of losing Jaffna again.

The LTTE, lavishly funded by the Tamil community overseas, has grown into a force able to stand and fight in the open, with better artillery than the demoralized Sri Lankan Army. Last month, it took the Elephant's Pass army camp at the base of the Jaffna Peninsula, which had remained in government hands even when the LTTE controlled Jaffna itself.