NEW DELHI -- When the complete history of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty gets written, its 1995 permanent extension will prove the beginning of its end. Although all nations of the world except four are today party to it, the NPT is in trouble, its future uncertain. From Japan to New Zealand, and from the United States to Germany, analysts are looking at ways to shore up the NPT regime.

For a treaty that has served as the bedrock of a five-nation-monopoly nuclear order, its extension in perpetuity was supposed to guarantee indefinite continuance of that regime. To achieve that success, many states were enticed, badgered, bullied, bribed, suborned or simply persuaded to fall in line. Over success, however, can be a recipe for eventual failure. Permanent extension was the equivalent of a blank check being handed to the nuclear powers. And in time to come this is likely to prove to be the NPT's undoing.

When Washington originally launched its diplomatic offensive, the proposal for an everlasting extension was intended to serve only as an opening gambit. The strategy was to ask for the maximum possible so that something substantial came out of any compromise deal. In contrast, a more moderate approach, such as seeking another 25-year term, could yield, it was felt, only five to 10 years of extension. No one in Washington had imagined a year ahead that NPT would be permanently extended -- and so smoothly. But once the permanent-extension juggernaut was launched, it flattened all opposition on its path.