Taiwan's presidential campaign is moving toward the final stretch. It is being fought among three top contenders: Vice President Lien Chan of the Nationalist Party, Chen Shui-pien of the Democratic Progressive Party and James Soong, an independent. The second free, direct presidential election on March 18, now too close to call, will have a significant impact on the future of Taiwan's democratization program and its relations with China and the United States.

The election is being fought over two issues: money politics and avoiding war with China. Soong, an ex-governor who is defying the Nationalist Party, and who is reportedly China's choice, is being attacked by opponents for his potential "sellout" of Taiwan to China if elected. He has, thus, defined Taiwan and China as "both sovereign, independent, but not subordinated to each other" and their relation as "a quasi-international relation," somewhere between Beijing and President Lee Teng-hui's positions -- the former claiming Taiwan is a renegade province and the latter insisting on an equal "special state-to-state relationship."

Soong long led Lien and Chen in opinion polls. His standing plummeted, however, following last November's disclosure that he allegedly transferred the equivalent of tens of millions in dollars to the personal accounts of his son, in-laws and associates, including more than $6 million to U.S. banks, possibly breaking tax and criminal laws. The scandal, with charges and counter charges flying about money politics and underworld ties, has damaged Soong, the Nationalist Party and Lien and helped Chen. This prompted Lien, a scholarly statesman, to launch a radical reform program in the new year to prohibit the running of businesses by political parties and to place of Nationalist Party assets (said to exceed $1.7 billion) in independent trusts.