A few weeks ago, New York was hit by an outbreak of the West Nile virus. Five people died and another 50 were sickened before authorities were able to respond. West Nile fever is a rare, encephalitic virus that is common in Africa and Asia, but had never before been diagnosed in the Western Hemisphere. That raises questions and fears about the origin of this outbreak. Health experts are examining conventional explanations for the appearance of the disease, but national security officials have questioned whether there is another aspect to this incident. While there is no cause for immediate alarm, there is every reason to be concerned about the growing risk of bioterrorism.

The West Nile virus is usually carried by birds and mosquitoes that rarely stray across the Atlantic Ocean. U.S. health authorities are not sure what started the outbreak, but they suspect it was carried by an imported bird. Most experts agree with that assessment, but the outbreak fits nicely with the claims in a book by an alleged Iraqi defector, who asserts that Iraqi scientists have tried to develop a modified strain of West Nile virus to use as a biological weapon. Experts think it unlikely: West Nile virus is weak and it is almost impossible to control. Terrorists would have no guarantee that it would actually hit the target.

Even though the latest incident is probably unrelated to terrorism, there is is mounting concern about the likelihood of such an attack. As U.S. Secretary of Defense William Cohen said recently, "The question is no longer if this will happen, but when."