Mr. Vladimir Putin, Russia's prime minister, has embarked on a high-stakes gamble. After a series of mysterious bomb blasts in Russia and armed incursions into the Russian republic of Dagestan, Mr. Putin has declared war on Islamic extremists who, he claimed, were being sheltered by the Muslim government in Chechnya. A monthlong offensive has killed hundreds, perhaps thousands, of people; its indiscriminate nature has ensured that civilians have born the brunt of the attack. If the war does not end soon -- and history suggests it will not -- Mr. Putin could drag Russia into another quagmire, one that will undermine his government, its relations with the Islamic world and those with the West.
Chechnya is a convenient target for Mr. Putin. In the Russian mind, the Chechen people are linked to organized crime and are therefore regularly discriminated against. Many Russians still smart from the humiliation inflicted by defeat in the war waged against separatist rebels from 1994 to 1996. Hundreds of thousands of civilians were killed in that conflict, Russia's international image was blackened, and the government was ultimately forced to accept an independent Chechen republic in everything but name. Revenge is a key consideration in this latest campaign.
The number of casualties in the latest round of fighting is unknown, but Russian tactics have ensured that they are high. Moscow claims to have lost 200 soldiers and killed 2,000 militants; the Chechens say they have lost fewer fighters and killed more Russians. The number of civilian casualties is high. Last week, a rocket attack on an outdoor market -- originally blamed on the rebels, and then acknowledged to have been the work of Russian special forces -- killed at least 118 people and wounded several hundred. Nearly 200,000 have fled the republic, creating a potential humanitarian disaster.