The debate over who lost Russia is intensifying as the U.S. presidential election draws near. Although the United States' policies toward post-Soviet Russia have been bipartisan, politicians sense that Vice President Al Gore is especially vulnerable because of his cochairmanship of the Gore-Chernomyrdin Commission, launched as the keystone of the Clinton administration's partnership for peace. This well-staffed and lavishly funded assignment was intended to elevate Gore's stature, endowing him with the patina of a senior statesman, assuming — as seemed sensible eight years ago — that Russia would eventually make a successful transition.

The financial crisis of August-September 1998 called both premises into question, prompting suspicions that not only were repeated assurances of progress illusory, but that Kremlin kleptocrats might have embezzled billions of dollars of Western aid. The administration at first scoffed at allegations of malfeasance. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Strobe Talbott, writing in the Economist, dismissed the myth of Russian corruption as a Hollywood fabrication. Then-Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin denied that Russia had provided misleading information to secure IMF loans or misused the proceeds, when the Russian Central Bank — as is now acknowledged — was hiding reserves of $1.2 billion in the Channel Islands and the rest of the funds were disappearing down a black hole. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank affirmed the soundness of their transition policies and lauded Russian President Boris Yeltsin's success in winning the battle for monetary stabilization. But attitudes have recently undergone a profound change.

America's bureaucratic elite has lost faith in Russia's ability to make the hoped-for transition. Of course, the Gore-Putin Commission (Premier Vladimir Putin replaced former Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin), USAID, the Defense Department, the CIA, the IMF and the World Bank still want to spend the money in the pipeline and expand their programs, but they no longer want to be held accountable for promises they can't deliver.