Japan is engulfed in severe political turmoil as the Diet session closes today. Things have turned out as I have been predicting since last fall regarding the coalition strategies of Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiromu Nonaka, the chief strategist in Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi's administration.

Since late last year, political reporting has focused on the coalition of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the conservative Liberal Party. Although it failed to secure a majority in the Upper House, the alliance has been largely successful, catapulting the Obuchi Cabinet's public-approval ratings to a high level. From the beginning, I thought that Nonaka's coalition strategy was aimed at ensuring Obuchi's re-election as LDP president, the first step toward a long-term rule by his administration. It was my belief that the LDP was looking for a new coalition partner to obtain a majority in the Upper House. Power-hungry New Komeito, which had adequate numerical strength, looked like the kind of partner the LDP wanted.

The proposed coalition of the LDP, the LP and New Komeito is still involved in dispute. LP leader Ichiro Ozawa is demanding that the LDP honor its agreement to cut the number of Lower House proportional representation seats by 50 under legislation now before the Diet. New Komeito, however, vehemently objects to the Diet seat reduction bill, which would undermine its political strength.