The toll from natural disasters is increasing. Since the 1960s, the economic cost of catastrophes has increased nine times. Last year, over 700 "large loss" disasters caused nearly $100 billion in economic losses. Were that the only price to be paid. According to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent, the lives of over 126 million people were altered by disasters. Twenty-five million people were driven from their homes as a result of declining soil fertility, drought, deforestation and flooding. Natural disasters created more refugees than did war and conflict. The numbers are going to grow.

Climate change is making weather prediction more difficult. The El Nino and La Nina phenomena are two examples of the changing weather patterns of the future. Hurricane Mitch, which devastated Latin America and the United States, was a hint of the destruction that lies ahead. There are many questions about environmental change, but there is virtual unanimity that global warming will cause sea levels to rise. The World Meteorological Organization confirmed that 1998 was the warmest year in history since records were kept. One-half of the world's population lives in coastal zones; 10 million are at risk of constant flooding. Flooding is not the only risk: Sixty percent of the world's population will be living in potential malarial zones by 2100.

Japanese are painfully aware of the damage that can be wrought by earthquakes. The Great Hanshin Earthquake in 1995 caused losses that are estimated to reach $200 billion. Forty of the world's 50 major cities are located in earthquake zones. The poor living conditions in many of the "megacities" will make the losses significantly greater when they hit.