It must be lonely at the International Monetary Fund. Fiscal disciplinarians are never the life of the party, but the fund's tight-fisted solutions to economic crises have antagonized governments from Malaysia to Moscow, from Bangkok to Brazil.

Last week, the fund's analysts darkened the mood in Tokyo. Their forecast of a 1.4 percent contraction in the economy in fiscal 1999 is a pointed contrast to the rosy predictions of the Japanese government, which anticipates growth of 0.5 percent this year. Not surprisingly, Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi, who has staked his political future on a recovery in 1999, called the forecast "harsh" and wondered aloud about the basis of their projections.

The prime minister might be forgiven for feeling a bit miffed. In recent weeks, the markets have given his policies a vote of confidence. The Dow Jones industrial average may have punched through the 10,000 mark, but among developed-country exchanges, the 225-issue Nikkei average has recorded the largest rise (in local currency) since Jan. 1. Rising share prices reflect renewed hopes that the economy has turned the corner. The passage of legislation to help bail out the troubled finance sector and the huge public-works spending in the new budget faith are both seen as signs of a new readiness to do what it takes to get the economy moving again.