The raison d'etre of established parties is in serious doubt following their serious setbacks in the April 11 local elections. A case in point was Shintaro Ishihara's overwhelming victory in the Tokyo gubernatorial election. Ishihara, a former lawmaker of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, now running as an independent, crushed major contenders backed by the LDP, the Democratic Party of Japan and New Komeito. Many of the LDP faithful apparently voted for Ishihara, as did many floating voters. Ishihara declared after the victory that the results showed that established parties had become "worthless."

Except for the races in Tokyo and Osaka, 10 gubernatorial elections ended in victories for candidates jointly backed by the LDP and opposition forces. As far as local politics is concerned, most opposition parties have effectively joined the ruling camp. Lack of confrontation is likely to mark relations between the governors and prefectural assemblies -- a disturbing sign for local politics.

The 44 prefectural assembly elections held on the same day give us good data for predicting the outcome of the next Lower House election. While the LDP suffered a setback, the Japan Communist Party recorded strong gains. The DPJ, which faced its first local election since it was founded, was unable to follow up on the solid gains it made in the Upper House election last July. The DPJ now faces the challenge of solidifying its local voter base and making a stronger appeal to floating voters.