Japanese diplomacy has landed in a precarious position following the exit of Komeito from the Liberal Democratic Party-led ruling bloc last week as a spate of summits and meetings scheduled for the end of this month fast approach.
New LDP President Sanae Takaichi had widely been expected to be elected prime minister when parliament opens early next week, possibly on Oct. 20. But Komeito’s decision to leave the ruling coalition has thrown a wrench into that scenario.
As horse-trading and speculation surge over exactly who the next prime minister will be — Takaichi or a possible candidate put forward by a unified opposition — Japan’s next leader will be confronted with a quick succession of key events.
The prime minister is expected to make his or her diplomatic debut at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Malaysia on Oct. 26, followed by a planned visit to Japan by U.S. President Donald Trump from Oct. 27 to 29, with the test of diplomatic mettle concluding in a trip to South Korea for an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting from Oct. 31.
The closely watched meetings will almost assuredly be the next prime minister’s first forays onto the diplomatic and multilateral stages and will be an immediate litmus test of the leader’s abilities.
“The timing couldn’t be tighter — all the meetings are important for Japanese diplomacy in different ways — the U.S. because of the security and economic ties, APEC because the Japanese prime minister could get to meet China’s Xi (Jinping) and South Korea’s Lee (Jae Myung), ASEAN because it’s strategically critical for Japan’s regional networking strategy,” Robert Ward, a Japan expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said in reference to the Chinese and South Korean presidents.
Trump’s visit to Japan — assuming the president still comes as he continues to grapple with a U.S. government shutdown — is likely to be the most crucial piece of the next Japanese government’s first diplomatic forays.
Takaichi, if elected, could have a good rapport with Trump from the outset of any meeting, said Ward, who noted the pair’s political alignment and her closeness to late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was widely seen as the world leader closest to Trump during his first term.
Trump would also find in Takaichi a willing partner in his administration’s calls for Japan to further boost defense budgets. But the next leader, Takaichi or someone else, is unlikely to push back too hard against U.S. defense spending demands, said Ward.
“Any alternative prime minister would at least continue with the current trajectory of defense reforms — pressure from the U.S. coupled with continued deterioration in Japan’s security environment allow little room for deviation from this path,” he said.
It’s also unlikely that the next Japanese leader would push Trump too hard to renegotiate the U.S.-Japan trade deal.
Although Takaichi has reportedly tapped LDP election rival Toshimitsu Motegi — a former trade minister who has touted his tough negotiating skills during the first Trump administration — to be the country’s next top diplomat, Japan has few cards to play given the importance of the U.S. market and its security relationship with Washington.
At the ASEAN meeting, Southeast Asian nations are expected to agree to boost cooperation with Japan on trade while looking to Tokyo for leadership as Trump’s tariffs campaign continues to roil the global economy. The APEC summit, meanwhile, could see the new Japanese leader meet with Xi and Lee for the first time.
The Japanese prime minister and Xi have met on the sidelines of APEC every year since 2022 as the two countries look to promote a “mutually beneficial” aspect of an increasingly fraught relationship that has seen Beijing repeatedly testing Tokyo with military moves both near and inside its waters and airspace in recent months.
The contenders for Japan’s top post have largely taken a hawkish approach to China, including Takaichi, who has cultivated ties with self-ruled Taiwan, which Beijing views as a renegade province that must be brought back into the fold, by force if necessary.
Any meeting with Xi and host Lee would also be closely watched considering Takaichi’s stance on historical issues and her past visits to the war-linked Yasukuni Shrine.
Talks with Lee would also come just on the heels of a visit to South Korea by outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba late last month, where the two agreed on the need to continue developing “stable” ties following years of acrimony.
Takaichi has said that she hopes to strengthen cooperation with South Korea, both bilaterally and trilaterally with their mutual ally, the U.S. However, critics have voiced concern that some of her stances could put a damper on the improved bilateral relationship.
For example, the veteran lawmaker, who has not served in a key diplomatic Cabinet post such as foreign or defense minister, said during the LDP leadership campaign that she would like to send a Cabinet-level official to Takeshima Day, which Shimane Prefecture celebrates on Feb. 22 every year to boost Japan’s claim of sovereignty over Takeshima island. The island is controlled by South Korea, where it is called Dokdo.
But the contenders for Japan’s premiership will also have to balance the country’s relationship with Seoul and Beijing, with the next leader likely choosing to take a pragmatic approach to ties that has been the gold standard for recent administrations, experts say.
Takaichi has reportedly already been briefed on the diplomatic calendar by senior government officials, including from the Foreign Ministry. But, with the parliamentary schedule still up in the air, preparations for the meetings have effectively been delayed since the next leader’s foreign and defense policy preferences — which could differ substantially depending on who is elected prime minister — remain unclear.
Observers have said that for the prime minister to attend the events, a new government would need to be launched by Oct. 24. Even then, the possibility of canceling or postponing the trips and visits is not out of the question.
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