Japan will play a major role under defense cooperation between the governments in Tokyo and Washington under the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump if a conflict occurs in Taiwan, Kenneth Weinstein, Japan chair at Hudson Institute, a U.S. think tank, said in a recent interview with Jiji Press.
"Japan's own self-interest is much more at stake in a Taiwan contingency or in a Japan contingency than the United States is," Weinstein said. "The fact that Japan recognizes that it is responsible now primarily for its own homeland defense, not the United States, is a big step," he said.
Asked about the possibility of Chinese invasion of Taiwan or remote islands in Japan, Weinstein said, "I think it's unlikely in the near future, but it's always a risk."
But he said, "I don't think that (Chinese President) Xi Jinping wants to risk the anger of Donald Trump" because the Chinese economy has not recovered completely from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Trump "will do all he can to make sure that he does not need to use force" to intervene in a Taiwan conflict, Weinstein said. But if China attacks Taiwan, "you can expect a very firm reaction from the United States," he said.
Weinstein said Japan's plan to introduce proactive cyber defense will open the door for the country to become a member of AUKUS, a security partnership between the United States, Britain and Australia.
It would be useful if Japan contributes components to AUKUS submarines, Weinstein said. "AUKUS would be a lot stronger if Japan were to join it as a full-fledged partner down the road."
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