The probability that a Nankai Trough megaquake will occur in the next 30 years has risen to “around 80%,” according to new research released Wednesday by a government expert panel.
Every year, the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion recalculates the probability of earthquakes occurring in the active faults and seabed around Japan based on data from Jan. 1.
According to the most recent report, the probability of a megaquake happening in the Nankai Trough, which spans offshore and land areas from Shizuoka to Miyazaki prefectures, has gone up from what was projected as being “between 70% and 80%” last year.
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