During a break in proceedings at February’s European leaders’ summit, the Dutch premier approached his Portuguese counterpart with a can of beer and a smile.

Mark Rutte handed over a popular Belgian brew to Antonio Costa with an acknowledgment that the government in Lisbon had surprised him, according to a person with knowledge of the exchange. After Portugal’s public debt hit 134% of GDP during the COVID-19 pandemic, Costa had bet his fiscally conservative colleague that he’d get it back below 100% and, to the Dutchman’s amazement, he’d managed it.

When the leaders gather in December, Costa will be in charge of proceedings as the newly installed president of the European Council, and he’s going to need to keep exceeding the expectations of skeptical colleagues to survive the storms that await him.