The image was striking: U.S. President Joe Biden greeting Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman with a fist bump at the entrance of Jeddah’s Al Salam Royal Palace. It was July 2022, and just two years earlier, Biden had vowed to make Saudi Arabia a "pariah” over the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. But with oil prices surging, he could no longer afford having the crown prince as an enemy.

For the crown prince, the diplomatic reset couldn’t have come at a better time. The war in Ukraine — which pushed up the price of oil — had given him the leverage he needed to position Saudi Arabia at the center of a rapidly shifting world order, and to present himself as both globally engaged and strategically patient. When Biden asked Crown Prince Mohammed to ease oil prices, he declined. American diplomats were shocked, but the crown prince needed oil revenues to keep flowing.

Crown Prince Mohammed's rise to power had been marked by extravagant spending, bold cultural reforms and a devastating war in Yemen. The cocksure young prince had shaken Saudi Arabia to its foundations. But the 2022 meeting with Biden showed that the crown prince, while no less ambitious, was increasingly attuned to his place on the world stage.