Hamas is likely to name Qatar-based Khalil al-Hayya as a successor to slain leader Yahya Sinwar, aligning it closer to Iran and giving its main backer more sway in the next stage of the group’s war with Israel.

Al-Hayya is a protege of Ismail Haniyeh, Sinwar’s predecessor who was killed in Tehran in July. He has been leading indirect negotiations with Israel over both a cease-fire in Gaza and the release of hostages kidnapped by Hamas during the Oct. 7 attacks last year, which triggered the ongoing conflict.

"The next leader will almost certainly come from the movement’s leadership in Doha,” wrote Ghaith al-Omari and Neomi Neumann, senior fellow and visiting fellow respectively at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Al-Hayya would "likely seek to continue Sinwar’s path both in the Gaza war front and in staying close to Iran,” they said.