When an Iranian consulate building was destroyed in Syria in April, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed to punish Israel. What followed was a huge yet telegraphed assault and no all-out war.
Three months later, the military chief of Iran-backed Hezbollah and Hamas’ political head were killed within hours of each other. The wider regional conflict seen by some as imminent didn’t end up erupting.
Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Friday in Beirut dealt an even bigger blow. But it’s still unlikely to trigger a direct war with the Islamic Republic, according to current and former U.S. and Middle East government officials and regional experts. Instead, Iran will focus on rebuilding the militant group in Lebanon and keeping its network of proxies in action for as long as possible, they said.
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