The U.S. trails only Turkey and Russia among the world’s biggest economies likeliest to see violent political turmoil in the next year, according to a Bloomberg Economics analysis that tries to capture an uneasy national mood after the assassination attempt against former U.S. President Donald Trump.
The chance of open civil unrest in the next year is low — just 2.9% — but is third highest among the Group of 20 major economies, according to the analysis. The risk in the U.S. is more than double for nations such as Canada, Germany and Australia that are considered America’s democratic peers.
The analysis adapts an approach developed by the U.S. government’s Political Instability Task Force to measure the risk of violent internal conflict. It seeks to put a number to trends that have provoked fears of unrest in the years since the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol.