Few people outside France are paying closer attention to its election than Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni — and anyone assuming she and the National Rally leader Marine Le Pen would find common ground as right-wing populists would be wrong.

In fact, people familiar with Meloni’s thinking say she is acutely conscious that, should Le Pen’s party prevail on July 7 — even shy of an absolute majority in parliament — they would be uneasy allies at best. The Frenchwoman poses a challenge to the Italian’s current status as the standard-bearer and darling of a new brand of conservatism trying to impose itself across the European Union.

Both women share the trait of wanting to rid themselves of far-right baggage, while holding opposing views on Russia and specific social issues like abortion — positions that aren’t that easy to reconcile. Meloni has also tacked toward the center just as Europe has tilted rightward. She and French President Emmanuel Macron had found a way until recently to tolerate — or even grudgingly respect — each other.