The footprint of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine is growing fast after a weekend in which sea drones crippled a Russian naval vessel and oil tanker.

For the first time, the attacks put at risk Russia’s commodity exports via the Black Sea, a route that accounts for most of the grain and 15% to 20% of the oil Russia sells daily on global markets. Significantly higher insurance and shipping costs are likely to follow for Moscow, but there are risks to European and global markets, too.

The expansion comes as Ukraine’s counteroffensive advances more slowly than Kyiv officials planned, and as Saudi Arabia’s attempt to catalyze peace talks by hosting a multinational conference showed just how hard it is likely to be to end the bloodshed on terms both sides can accept.