Global oil traders are fixated on the next milestone in China’s economic recovery, when travelers pack their bags and head to the airport for the Golden Week holiday in early May.
Some 170 million Chinese holidayed abroad in 2019, before the pandemic struck. That figure sank to less than 9 million last year at the height of China’s lockdowns. The likelihood of dramatically more air travel explains why jet fuel consumption in China is widely seen as the single biggest driver of world oil demand growth this year, according to JPMorgan Chase.
The signs are encouraging. Overseas ticket searches for Golden Week are 120% of the level in 2019, state media reported, citing an estimate from Trip.com. As of April 18, actual bookings were more than 10 times that of last year, the Securities Daily reported.