An ominous buildup of Russian troops near Ukraine. A migration crisis in Belarus that Western leaders call a "hybrid war” by a Kremlin client state. Escalating fears over natural gas that have Europe dreading a cold winter.

President Vladimir Putin of Russia has, increasingly, put his cards on the table: He is willing to take ever-greater risks to force the West to listen to Russian demands. And the U.S. and its allies are sensing an unusually volatile moment, one in which Putin is playing a role in multiple destabilizing crises at once.

In the stretch of Europe from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, where Moscow and the West have competed for influence for decades, the threat of a new military conflict is growing.