The Oct. 31 Lower House election is a crucial moment in Japan’s political calendar because of the chamber’s greater power. It’s also a test for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who just assumed office on October 4, as well as for the ruling coalition and two opposition parties that, for the first time ever, have agreed to coordinate candidates in as many districts as possible.
A total of 465 seats — including 289 single-member districts and 176 proportional seats — are up for grabs in the general election. The campaign, which kicks off Tuesday, pits the ruling LDP and Komeito, which has 305 seats, against the major opposition parties — especially the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) and the Japanese Communist Party (JCP), which have 122 seats between them and are attempting to unify behind the same candidates in as many single-seat elections as they can, so as to avoid splitting the opposition vote.
The LDP-Komeito coalition is looking to reach the 233 seats needed for a majority at a minimum, with the LDP, which has 276 seats, looking to hit that goal without needing to rely on Komeito. Two other opposition parties, Nippon Ishin no Kai and the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), are confident of picking up seats and could play an influential role in a post-election ruling coalition or opposition party realignment. The three most likely outcomes are as follows.