It seems like Japan’s big recovery is always a quarter away.

That dynamic is playing out again ahead of gross domestic product figures due Monday. Economists expect Japan to have just managed to eke out growth in the three months through June, but the more robust recovery they once saw for this summer now looks certain to be delayed.

The slowest vaccine drive among the Group of Seven nations is a key reason. With infections rising to record levels in recent days and the government’s fourth state of emergency already extended to the end of August, the bounce in consumer spending that analysts had been forecasting will have to wait even longer.