The Black Death that ravaged Europe in the 14th century wreaked profound long-term effects. Some historians believe it took 80 years for human populations to recover in most parts of the continent, and well over a century in certain areas.
Much is being reported on the impact of the current pandemic in economic terms, but less so in demographic terms, which are harder to compile in real time.
Writing in Shukan Shincho (April 15), journalist Masashi Kawai has done some number-crunching and comes to the terrifying conclusion that 2021 will be remembered as the year of the “baby shock,” in which Japan’s already low birth rate will decline to the extent that already gloomy projections for population figures will be accelerated by roughly 18 years.
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