The rebound from the March 11 disasters was probably cut short in the fourth quarter as the impact of Europe's crisis outweighed the support from reconstruction spending.

Gross domestic product probably shrank in October and November, pointing to a 0.1 percent contraction for the quarter, according to calculations by the Japan Center for Economic Research, an independent analysis group in Tokyo. JPMorgan Chase & Co. is among banks cutting projections for GDP in the period.

"It was a very tough quarter for the Japanese economy," said Yuki Masujima, a senior economist at JCER who used to compile economic forecasts at the Bank of Japan.