Industrial production increased for the first time in six months in November, signaling that the export-led recovery will regain traction.
Factory output climbed 1 percent from October, when it dropped 2 percent, the Ministry of Trade, Economy and Industry said Tuesday. The median estimate of 29 economists in a survey was for a 0.9 percent gain.
The report eases concern that companies will further scale back production as government stimulus steps fade. Exports withstood a yen near 15-year highs to grow faster for the first time in nine months in November, supported by demand from China, government data showed last week.
Honda Motor Co. is among the companies increasing output to meet demand.
"It's nice to end the year with some good economic news," said Akiyoshi Takumori, chief economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co. "Japan's still in a soft patch, but today's report signals there will be better times ahead, driven by the global recovery."
Output of transport equipment advanced for the first time since March and production of electronic parts and devices gained for the first time since May, according to the METI report. Overall production in October fell by the most since February 2009 as the government's subsidy program to buy fuel-efficient cars ended in September, prompting automakers to cut output.
"Production was impressive and shows the global recovery is firmly in place," said Takehiro Sato, chief Japan economist at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co. "Japan's recovery is gradually improving after a pause."
Shipments of flat-panel televisions rose in November as shoppers took advantage of stimulus programs to purchase consumer electronics, the METI showed. The incentives were reduced in December.
A separate report Tuesday showed that retail sales rose 1.3 percent in November, beating economists' forecasts for a 0.4 percent advance. Core consumer prices excluding fresh food slid 0.5 percent.
Manufacturers said they plan to increase output 3.4 percent in December and 3.7 percent in January, a government survey included in Tuesday's output report showed.
"An increase in the output forecasts will likely strengthen optimism that production will pick up earlier than expected," said Yoshiki Shinke, senior economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.
A December output figure in line with the forecasts will result in production sliding about 1.6 percent this quarter, the second consecutive drop, the government said.
Komatsu Ltd., Asia's largest maker of construction equipment, said this month it is selling more excavators in China than it expected this quarter as the government aims to develop its interior regions. Honda said Chinese output rose 2.7 percent from a year earlier in November.
China's industrial output gained more than economists' forecast in November from a year earlier. In the U.S., the economy expanded at a 2.6 percent annual rate in the third quarter, marking a pickup in growth.
"We expect production to remain sluggish through the January-March period but do not anticipate a double dip," said Kyohei Morita, chief economist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo. If China maintains robust growth and the U.S. rebounds, "we believe Japanese exports will hold their ground in 2011, helping to support production."
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