The economy shrank by a record amount last quarter amid an unprecedented collapse in exports and a drawdown of inventories, but there could be a recovery later this year, according to a Bloomberg estimate of the government's gross domestic product report due out next week.
GDP contracted an annualized 16.1 percent in the three months that ended March 31, following a fourth-quarter drop of 12.1 percent, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Cabinet Office will release the GDP report Wednesday.
The first-quarter contraction was probably the most severe since records started in 1955, eclipsing a 13.1 percent plunge during the 1974 oil crisis. The drop would also be more than twice as bad as the 6.1 percent slide in the U.S.