2005 may be the year in which Japan's population began to decline, according to preliminary government data.

The annual rate of natural population increase, or the figure of births minus deaths, is expected to have dropped to below zero as of the end of December as the rates have dwindled through the end of July at a pace heading for the decrease.

The Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry's preliminary population statistics as of the end of July show the natural population increase at that point was 14,098 over the past year, dropping below 20,000 for the first time on record, according to the data.

The annual natural population increase had dropped at a rate of about 5,600 a month for the previous 18 months.

The figure was about 115,000 in January 2004, 77,000 in January 2005, 50,000 in March, less than 30,000 in May and 21,500 in June, according to the ministry.

At that pace, the annual natural population increase is believed to have been around zero at the end of October and about minus 10,000 at the end of December.

A government white paper on declining childbirths released Friday said Japan's population is likely to start decreasing next year, a year earlier than formerly projected, if the fertility rate continues to fall at the current pace.