Shipments of "happoshu," the low-malt cousin of beer, are expected to post their first year-on-year fall in 2003, according to industry data released Thursday.

Sales in the January-October period fell 1.9 percent from the same period last year, with no major increases expected by December.

Japan's top five brewers -- Kirin Brewery Co., Asahi Breweries Ltd., Sapporo Holdings Ltd., Suntory Ltd. and Orion Breweries Ltd. -- saw their happoshu shipments fall 0.7 percent in October on a year-on-year basis to 212,283 kiloliters.

This marked the first decline in two months and brought total happoshu shipments in the January-October period to 2.125 million kiloliters, down 1.9 percent from a year before.

For happoshu shipments to exceed those posted last year, the five brewers must increase their shipments by about 10 percent by the end of December. This is an unlikely goal as the firms have no plans to launch new products this year.

Happoshu shipments had expanded on a year-on-year basis since their debut in 1994. This year's figures have been bludgeoned, however, by sluggish demand resulting from the May 1 tax hike on the products and by the unusually cool summer.

Meanwhile, combined shipments of beer and happoshu this year are also likely to fall from those logged in 2002.