Takeshi Kimura, president of consulting firm KPMG Financial Co., says he periodically receives calls from overseas investors who ask one chilling question.

"What is the probability of the Japanese government freezing savings accounts or declaring a state of emergency?"

Hedge fund managers are toying with a series of theoretical questions. How far off is capital flight? And if the yen plunges, what is the possibility of the finance minister shutting down the Tokyo foreign-exchange market, just when the opportunity for profit is brightest?