Private-sector economists said Monday the economy will probably shrink further during the current business year, falling short of the government's macroeconomic target of 1.7 percent growth.

"The Japanese economy will remain in a tough situation in the April-September first-half of fiscal 2001 because of continued falls in personal consumption and public-sector demand," said Hideo Kumano, a researcher at the Dai-ichi Life Research Institute Inc.

"Though public investment rose 5.2 percent in the January-March quarter thanks to pump-priming budgetary measures last year, the effect will end in the April-June quarter."