About 7,200 people would be killed, 158,000 injured and 378,000 buildings destroyed by fire if an earthquake measuring 7.2 on the Richter scale were to hit Tokyo at around 6 p.m. in the winter, according to the Tokyo Metropolitan Government's worst-case scenario, released August 29.
The projected damage to structures by fire in the quake would be 50 times worse than fire damage in the 1995 Great Hanshin Earthquake. The metropolitan government's simulation is based on an earthquake as powerful as the Hanshin quake with its epicenter in Tokyo. The January 1995 quake devastated Kobe and surrounding areas, killing more than 6,400 people.
More than 70 years have passed since the Great Kanto Earthquake, and experts agree that a major quake of up to 7 on the Richter scale could hit the heavily urbanized southern Kanto region at any time. According to the report, if the earthquake's focus were to be located beneath Tokyo's 23 wards, 143,000 buildings in the capital would be destroyed. In addition, subsequent fires would destroy 378,000 structures, particularly those in areas along Loop Highway No. 7 and the JR Chuo Line, which contain large numbers of old, wooden houses.