In the wake of Cyclone Nargis, people around the world are trying to understand the mind-boggling madness of Burma's military rulers. Why would they obstruct desperately needed relief operations and prolong the plight of survivors? Morten Pedersen helps us understand the mind-set of these prickly leaders and why they would link Western offers of disaster relief with ongoing efforts aimed at ousting them from power.
With bodies still floating in Yangon's environs, and survivors waiting in vain for relief, the military junta held a constitutional referendum on May 10. The referendum was a sham, with widespread credible reports of vote rigging. The new charter preserves the paramount political power of the military, excludes Aung San Suu Kyi from running for office and does not reflect the views of either ethnic nationalities that constitute one-third of the population or the democratic opposition.
Despite this unpromising context, Morten Pedersen suggests that the new constitution, flawed as it may be, offers a way out of the current impasse. In his view, establishing political ground rules and holding elections represent an opportunity for change and may unleash unanticipated and positive dynamics. The alternative may be a deepening of the current deadlock. He writes, "despite the obvious democratic deficit in the proposed constitution, [it] may help pave the way for longer-term political change." For the sake of the Burmese people, one can only hope he is right.