The United States and Europe are coming to understand that the rise of China and India means that there will be increasingly less scope for the status quo powers to dominate the world in ways they have grown accustomed to. Global strategies are being reassessed in light of this reshaping of Asia's geopolitical landscape. For Japan, there are growing anxieties about its role and future in Asia's 21st century drama.
Emmott points out that Asia's political divisions will deepen as a consequence of rapid economic development. He writes, "The rise of Asia is not just, or even mainly, going to pit Asia against the West — it is going to pit Asians against Asians. This is the first time in history when there have been three powerful countries in Asia, all at the same time: China, India and Japan. That might not matter if they liked each other, or were somehow naturally compatible. But they do not, and are not."
The rivalry within Asia means that it is becoming an arena for balance-of-power politics. Emmott argues that the Bush administration's 2005 agreement to collaborate with India over civilian nuclear energy and sideline nuclear proliferation concerns is part of a grand strategy aimed at balancing the rising power of China. Cozier ties with India are aimed at boosting its economic and military strength at the cost of gutting the 1968 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). Emmott sees this as a price worth paying given that in many key respects the NPT has been overtaken by events. He recommends that Bush's successor renegotiate a more robust NPT that binds the nuclear powers to make significant reductions in their nuclear arsenals. Much is at stake in Asia, home to four of the world's eight declared nuclear- weapons powers.