Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Asia has enjoyed considerably more stability than has Europe, the other critical theater of the Cold War. It's fair to say that there has been far more continuity in the region than change. That, however, no longer appears to be the case. The historic June 2000 summit between South Korean President Kim Dae Jung and North Korean leader Kim Jong Il raised hopes for a normalization in relations between the two countries. Nuclear tests by India and Pakistan signaled a shift in the strategic situation in South Asia. China's economic modernization could transform the regional balance of power. Southeast Asia is still grappling with the effects of the 1997 economic crisis and increasing economic integration.
In other words, report the authors of this new study, "This is a dynamic security environment. The only certainty is that it could and likely will evolve rapidly over the next decade."
The stakes are especially high for the United States. In many ways, the U.S. is the security guarantor for East Asia. Its military presence provides reassurance to friends and deters forces that might try to cause trouble or hope to profit from instability. For Washington, an understanding of the forces at work in the region is critical. Even business professionals would do well to understand the "big picture" as they too benefit from the stability that the U.S. presence provides.