AVOIDING THE APOCALYPSE: The Future of the Two Koreas, by Marcus Noland. Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics, 2000, 431 pp., $22 (paper).

The thaw on the Korean Peninsula continues. Every week, history is made: a meeting between Korean officials, a diplomatic breakthrough for North Korea, a cross-border business deal. Yet the meaning of these changes and their impact on international relations in Northeast Asia is unclear.

Is North Korea sincere in attempting to reach out to the world? Is there the prospect of real change in the secretive state or is North Korea merely stalling for time and money? How can the rest of the world encourage evolution in North Korea? Can it? Is South Korea ready for relations with the North? Is the world ready for unification?

There are no sure answers to these questions. Not only are the uncertainties worryingly persistent, but the information we do have suggests that we won't like the answers we eventually get.