INTERPRETING CHINA'S GRAND STRATEGY: Past, Present, and Future, by Michael D. Swaine and Ashley J. Tellis. RAND 2000, Project Air Force, 2000, 283 pp., $35 (cloth), $20 (paper).

Dealing with China is the chief foreign-policy challenge of the 21st century. Governments in Tokyo, Washington and elsewhere must develop coherent strategies to either accommodate or check (depending on circumstances) a huge country with immense resources that sprawls across the region and aspires to a more prominent profile within Asia and on the global stage. The task is complicated by the fact that decisions made now will shape China's development: If we treat Beijing as an enemy, it is sure to become one.

The variables are countless and the contingencies unknowable, but throwing up our hands and leaving things to fate is both irresponsible and dangerous. One possible guide is the past, which is why "Interpreting China's Grand Strategy" is important.

The authors are two veteran China analysts in the U.S. defense community. Michael Swaine is one of the best in the field. (But note the field: RAND has a Pentagon constituency and while its research is always top-notch, it rarely breaks out of the box.)