French elections often bring shocks. The 2012 presidential vote might have gone differently without Dominique Strauss-Kahn’s perp walk. Emmanuel Macron might never have stepped into the Elysee without Francois Fillon’s downfall over corruption charges. And now a bombshell has landed that will reshape the 2027 race: Far-right leader Marine Le Pen has been convicted of embezzlement, with the court barring her from standing for office for five years.

What makes this scandal different is not, as Le Pen’s defenders — including Elon Musk — claim, that French democracy is now decided by a cabal of unelected judges. If anything, the sentencing went against widespread expectations among the Parisian elite of an outcome that would have kept the political peace. If the presiding judge threw the book at Le Pen, it’s because of the magnitude of a "system” that lasted more than a decade and diverted millions of European Union funds for domestic activities — and because the far-right leader showed no remorse, insisting Monday evening that she was innocent and the victim of a political stitch-up. (If so, she’s in good company.)

The real question today is just how absolute this ban will be when it comes to the far right’s fortunes in a country where just a quarter of people trust the head of state and almost half view democracy as slow and inefficient. Some in the political establishment criticized the sentencing; the former adviser to Francois Mitterrand, Jacques Attali, even suggested changing the law. Abroad, Matteo Salvini in Italy and Viktor Orban in Hungary are tweeting their solidarity in the face of what the Kremlin unironically calls "violating democratic norms.” This will feed Le Pen’s combative tone and her plans to appeal the verdict; while the ban is applicable regardless, there is a small possibility she could wriggle free just in the nick of time.