It finally happened: Ekrem Imamoglu, Istanbul’s mayor and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s most formidable likely challenger in the 2028 presidential election, was formally arrested on flimsy corruption charges, after four days in custody.

The move was a long time coming and it cannot be dismissed as mere political maneuvering. It might not seem like it, but this is how coups often happen nowadays: with no blood and no noise beyond the whimper of a democracy dying in handcuffs.

After 23 years in power, and with Turkey’s economy collapsing, Erdogan knows that no election — even a rigged one — is safe. This left him with two options: Cancel the vote or remove any credible opponent. But timing mattered. Before making his move, he had to make sure that the geopolitical chessboard was arranged in his favor.