Until the Oval Office meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy went off the rails, it appeared that Zelenskyy was there to sign a deal requiring Ukraine to contribute 50% of future profits from its commodity mining to a fund jointly managed by the United States.

Instead, Zelenskyy’s repeated requests for at least some security guarantees culminated in a verbal assault from Trump and U.S. Vice President JD Vance, and Zelenskyy left empty-handed.

What Ukraine was supposed to gain from the deal was never entirely clear. But whatever the details, Ukraine’s value cannot be reduced to a mineral transaction. The country’s fate could reshape the geopolitical order, potentially shifting the balance of power, in Europe and beyond, for decades to come.