After years of grinding lower, a widely watched measure of fertility in a country battling significant demographic headwinds notched a small increase. While welcome, there’s little chance South Korea’s popular narrative of a nation blighted by empty schools and a deserted countryside will be put aside. Smaller families are here to stay.

Nobody is popping the champagne. Few experts consider that a trickle of decent numbers represents a change in the long-term trend of slowing population growth. Nor is South Korea alone. According to the United Nations, the world’s headcount will peak in the 2080s and then begin declining. Two other closely studied Asian economies reported a mixed bag on the birth front last month: Singapore's gauge paused a decline, while Japan produced fewer kids than ever in 2024.

If euphoria isn't warranted, nor is panic. It just gets in the way and risks an extreme response. By all means, pursue policies aimed at supporting families with two children, such as promoting parental leave and easing what many couples see as the costly business of education. Just don't expect a big pop — quickly — from throwing cash and incentives at the issue. It took decades of policy to get birthrates down; it was once seen as critical to generating economic development. The reverse, cranking fertility higher, will be nigh impossible, nowadays. Societal views have long evolved from thinking four to five kids is the norm.