For both Japan and South Korea, political stability seems like a distant goal. In Japan, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and junior partner Komeito hold a minority of seats in the parliament, putting their government in the precarious position of needing to sway commitments from various opposition parties to pass bills and formulate budgets. Meanwhile, South Korea is facing one of its most complex debacles since the beginning of parliamentary democracy in the country, with President Yoon Suk Yeol awaiting the Constitutional Court’s ruling on his impeachment. In addition, Yoon has been indicted and arrested over insurrection charges stemming from his shocking declaration of martial law.

Japan and South Korea are at their most fragile political states in decades just as their ally, the United States, has begun the second administration of Donald Trump. Trump’s return to the White House has already introduced severe disruptions to a changing global order. He fundamentally changed the traditional notion of “the West” in geopolitics as he abandoned Europe and its allies to initiate a direct deal with Russia over Ukraine. The question beckons as to whether — or rather when — he might do the same with the United States’ Indo-Pacific allies.

Signs of differences between Tokyo and Washington were already starting to brew during the end of Biden’s term, when the outgoing president blocked Nippon Steel’s takeover of U.S. Steel. Then Japan’s pundits were wringing their hands as Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru was unable to arrange a pre-inauguration meeting with Trump, despite repeated efforts.