While Donald Trump’s foreign policy toward Russia and his relationship with President Vladimir Putin have triggered consternation and outrage, there is an ostensible logic to his thinking. Trump is pursuing “the reverse Kissinger”: He wants to mirror that war criminal’s strategy to divide Moscow and Beijing but rather than courting China, he seeks to woo Putin as an ally against the Chinese leadership.
It’s a bold approach — and destined to fail. While there are tensions in the China-Russia relationship — some of which are substantial and will likely constrain their “friendship without limits” — there is today and in the foreseeable future far more that unites than divides them.
Those who cling to the logic of “the reverse Kissinger” must also address a test of that hypothesis that validates my conclusion: former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ill-fated attempts to strike a deal with Putin throughout his term in the Kantei. Despite a courtship that sometimes bordered on humiliation, Abe was ultimately frustrated. Putin pocketed every concession and demanded more. The Japan-Russia relationship ended pretty much where it started: distanced and antagonistic.
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