As the trade war between the U.S. and China heats up, Beijing is turning to its familiar playbook, using softer language to court American allies and partners while offering things like greater cooperation and more dialogue — part of its ongoing divide-and-conquer strategy.

Those unfamiliar with this pattern — which Japan has experienced for decades — mistake the shift in tone as a sign that China is genuinely open to better relations, leading to declarations of a "warming."

Japan has seen a dozen different cycles of freezing, followed by a period of warmer relations.