Japan, currently governed by the nascent and weak Shigeru Ishiba administration, is increasingly facing a different kind of provocation from China.

China has in recent years been placing buoys in Japan’s exclusive economic zone and territorial waters — something that did not occur under Shinzo Abe's watch — apparently to track submarines and map seabed communication cables that connect 90% of the nation’s global internet traffic. China added two last year with no real pushback after placing one buoy during the summer of 2023, when Fumio Kishida was prime minister.

Furthermore, there has been an increase in intentional military incursions into Japanese airspace and territorial waters, including those around the main islands. China is also no longer hesitant to send its aircraft carrier group through narrow straits in the southernmost Nansei Islands to conduct drills or to practice nuclear bombing runs in the Sea of Japan together with Russia.