In September 2015, Russia intervened militarily in Syria’s civil war, propping up Bashar Assad’s dictatorship as it teetered on the brink of collapse. This was the high point of Russia’s resurgence on the world stage and President Vladimir Putin’s ability to tilt the war in Assad’s favor helped make him a regional power broker. In addition to enhancing Putin’s stature, the operation led to strategic gains that gave Russia leverage vis-a-vis regional and Western powers.
Syria was thus a status symbol for the Kremlin. Putin, who sees Russia as a "great power" on par with the United States and China, attaches much importance to projecting that image in the former Soviet bloc and, more importantly, beyond it. If Russia’s war in Ukraine is about identity and empire, its presence in Syria was about prestige and status. But after Assad’s rapid fall from power earlier this month, it appears that Putin has had to sacrifice the latter for the former.
The collapse of Assad’s regime will also reconfigure Russia’s role in the Middle East and the Mediterranean. For starters, it might improve relations between Turkey and the West, as they engage in dialogues over Syria’s future, while driving a wedge between Turkey and Russia.
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