The rapid fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad reflects the dramatic changes that have swept the strategic landscape of the Middle East in the past year.
After civil war erupted in Syria in 2011, Assad clung to power for over a decade, despite facing a coalition of forces backed by the United States and Turkey. But only 11 days after the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched its offensive, Assad fled to Russia, ending his family’s 50-year rule.
That outcome was the result of years of ineffective rule and economic and social hardship, with even the Alawi community that was Assad’s base of support defecting without a fight. The end came when his main external backers, Russia and Iran, also abandoned him, reflecting both countries’ profound weakening. Russia’s war against Ukraine continues to drain its resources and preoccupy the Kremlin, while Israel’s post-Oct. 7 campaign against Hamas, Hezbollah (which provided significant support to the Assad regime) and Iran itself has crippled the Iranian-led “axis of resistance.”
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