Sanctuary cities may be having an identity crisis

President-elect Donald Trump said that he plans to somehow declare a national emergency and enlist the help of the U.S. military to deport millions of undocumented immigrants.

And as if on cue, Trump’s handpicked "border czar,” Tom Homan, has ramped up his attacks on the many Democrats who lead America’s deep-blue cities and have promised to do whatever they can to protect their residents. "You’re not going to stop us,” Homan fumed on Fox News. "But let me give you a word of advice: If you impede us, there’s going to be consequences.”

So far, the mayors and governors of these sanctuary cities and states have remained largely undeterred, even defiant in the face of such threats, just like they were during Trump’s first term eight years ago. "Come at me, bro” seems to be their prevailing mood. But how long can that last?

This last election, in which Republicans won the presidency as well as control of Congress, turned on the economy and border security. Democrats vastly underestimated the anger of voters over the spike in illegal border crossings under President Joe Biden. Now these mayors and governors could face an uphill battle explaining the value of being a sanctuary — such as that it’s inefficient to use scarce local resources to help the federal government raid, say, meatpacking plants and that entire communities suffer if undocumented immigrants are too afraid to report crimes or come forward as witnesses.

Nationally, polls have shown a surprising number of Americans say they favor Trump-style mass deportations — 56% of registered voters "strongly or somewhat” do so, according to Pew Research Center. Are some voters too fed up to support sanctuary cities and states again? Even in Los Angeles, a liberal city that’s home to hundreds of thousands of undocumented immigrants who’ve lived here for decades, this is something of an open question.

It was only just after the national election that the City Council was able to muster the political will to finally become an official sanctuary city, passing an ordinance that prohibits government employees and resources from being used for federal immigration enforcement. (There is an exception for serious offenses.) Mayor Karen Bass called it a reinforcement of "our commitment to protect our immigrant community and to keep all Angelenos safe” — a sentiment echoed by many on the City Council and among the activists who packed City Hall.

In some ways, the ordinance was merely a formality. When Trump was president the first time, then-Mayor Eric Garcetti issued an executive order with similar prohibitions to what’s in the new ordinance (but without the word "sanctuary”), mirroring a policy that the Los Angeles Police Department has followed since 1979.

But that abbreviated history glosses over the years of disagreement over whether to codify that "sanctuary city” language into an ordinance that can’t be easily changed. And it doesn’t account for the unease I heard at the council meeting, including from one resident named Charles who asked members: "How many people can we accept in Los Angeles? We can’t be a sanctuary city for everybody. We have people in this city that don’t have beds. American citizens that are homeless. And I feel we really need to put American citizens first.”

His words echo complaints made in other cities struggling to cope with tens of thousands of new undocumented immigrants, many bused in from the southern border by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott. In Chicago, frustration over strained resources prompted an attempt to weaken the city’s sanctuary law last year. And in New York, Mayor Eric Adams has supported changing the city’s sanctuary laws to let police work with federal authorities to deport people suspected of serious crimes.

It’s worth noting that in Los Angeles, New York and Chicago, the three largest among the most diverse cities in the U.S., Vice President Kamala Harris turned out far fewer voters than Biden in 2020. Meanwhile, Trump made gains this year, particularly with working class Latinos, in spite of — or maybe because of — his rhetoric about deporting people.

And in Arizona, where several Democratic mayors and the governor have panned Trump’s deportation plan, voters went further. Not only did they back Trump on Election Day, they also overwhelmingly approved a ballot measure to criminalize illegal border crossings and let local law enforcement arrest and deport migrants found anywhere in the state. Notably, 54% of Latino voters supported it.

Despite this, I have my doubts about whether most Americans will continue to support mass deportations once they become a horrific reality. Homan has promised "shock and awe.” Texas has already offered up land to build detention centers and Homan has said the Trump administration will "absolutely” use it.

The Trump administration could end up sparking a backlash that hands Democrats an opening to defend the importance of being a sanctuary and of standing up for the party’s progressive values. It’s one thing to feel frustrated with government’s inability to absorb a wave of newcomers. It’s quite another to watch vulnerable people get imprisoned.